A 2022 survey put a 50% chance of human-level AI at 2059

AI Impacts’ 2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI, conducted June to August 2022, drew 738 responses from researchers who had published at the NeurIPS or ICML machine-learning conferences in 2021. The aggregate forecast gave a 50 percent chance of “high-level machine intelligence” - defined as machines accomplishing every task better and more cheaply than human workers - by 2059, about 37 years out and roughly eight years sooner than the same survey’s 2016 estimate. Asked about catastrophic outcomes, 48 percent of respondents gave at least a 10 percent chance of an “extremely bad (e.g., human extinction)” result.